NHL: Shootout

With playoff races being tighter than ever, every point is vital down the stretch.  Pulling out wins in overtime and the shootout can be the difference between golfing and Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  A lot of fans like the shootout purely based on entertainment value, but often overlook the impact those points have over an 82 game season.

For example, the New Jersey Devils managed to lose all thirteen shootouts they had last season.  The team finished in the tenth position within the East, and was 5 points back from a three way tie for the final position in the playoffs.  Hypothetically, if the Devils won just 5 of their thirteen shootouts, they would have tied both Columbus and Detroit at 93 points.  With those 5 wins, they would have reached 40 wins total which is just one win more than the Red Wings.  If this were the case, the Devils would have bumped the Red Wings into 9th and took over the final playoff spot.  Not only do these losses kill you chances of making the playoffs, but the psychological effects on the team can be demoralizing over an 82 game season.


Nashville too, fell victim to shootout woes last season.  They won just two of eleven shootouts, and fell short of the playoffs by three points.  Just like the Devils, just a few shootouts were the difference between a playoff berth and an early exit from the 2013-14 season.  Moving forward, I am sure many teams will focus much more heavily on this area of the game.  It has become a prominent aspect of the NHL, and will be for years.  The anticipation and excitement for fans is overwhelming, which makes it one of the most most exciting elements of today's game.  Individual players are allowed to showcase their talents' in a one-on-one situation which rarely occurs during a regular 60 minute game.

Toronto Maple Leafs: 2014-15 Season Preview

For the first time in a long time, I am really excited to see the Leafs play.  Being an Ontario boy, I have always kept a close eye on the team regardless of how they are playing.  Historically, they have been one of the most prominent and successful teams on and off the ice.  However, the last few seasons have not been a walk in the park for this once dominant franchise.

Regardless of the past, the Leafs are looking to bounce back this upcoming season.  They have one of the deepest forward units in the East which should help them compete with the elite Eastern Conference teams.  In the past, the leafs have primarily relied on Kessel and a small group of others to carry the teams offence.  This season should be different.  As expected, Tyler Bozak looks to be cenetering Phil kessel and James Van Riemsdyk.  The second unit consists of Clarkson, Kadri and Lupul.  This physical second unit will be able to grind down opponents defense.  If utilized properly, they will grind down opposing teams over the long haul.  After the top two lines, things get a little complicated.  I personally think that Santorelli should center David Booth and Leo Komarov.  Regardless of what people think, Mike Santorelli is an unbelievably creative player who can put up solid numbers if surrounded with complimentary wingers.  David Booth and Leo Komarov are the kinds of guys who will create a lot of space and time for Santorelli to work.  They can both get in on the defense quickly, and create turnovers down low.  That leaves Matt Frattin and Peter Holland on the fourth line. These guys could likely be paired up with Daniel Winnick.  These last two lines are going to be a tough decision for the coaching staff as they also have Petri Kontiola who was just signed this year from the Finiish elite league.  Regardless of who makes the cut, those bottom two lines should be dangerous all season long.

Defensively, the team seems to have the top six pretty well decided.  The four returning Leafs are made up of captain Dion Phaneuf, Jake Gardiner, Cody Franson and Morgan Rielly.  There's also two newcomers to the team.  This includes Defensive specialist Roman Polak, and Stephane Robidas.  Robidas has a well-rounded game and will likely start on the top pair with Phaneuf.  His experience will allow him to log big minutes without being a liability defensively.  Despite being underutilized in the past, I believe that Franson will be playing some big minutes on the second unit with Jake Gardiner.  Morgan Rielly and Roman Polak will round out the last pair, but will likely be split up during special teams situations.  Overall, the team has six solid defense with a wide variety of skills.  This should prove to be vital as many of these guys have had success on special teams, whether it be power-play or penalty kill.  The one key element of the Leafs defense is the simple fact they they have 3 right-handed guys, and three left-handed guys.  This should help the Leafs' back end move the puck quickly in the offensive zone to open up some shooting lanes.

On the back end, the Leafs will have Johnathan Bernier and James Reimer once again.  It looks like Bernier will be the number one for the team, and Reimer will start the season as backup.    The East is littered with elite goalies, including the likes of Carey Price, Tuuka Rask and Henrik Lundqvist.  Toronto does not have the luxury of a star goaltender, but they do have two solid goalies who are both capable of catching fire at any point in the season.  Bernier is a good goalie who will put up great numbers if the Leafs defense can avoid costly turnovers and botched defensive assignments.

At the end of the day, every position looks strong coming into the 2014-15 season.  They have the roster to put up good numbers in the regular season, and potentially make a push in the playoffs.  I am expecting the leafs to sneak into the playoffs this year, possibly wrapping up a 7th or 8th spot in the East.We should see another big season from Phil Kessel, who will be expected to lead the team offensively.  I also look forward to see Phaneuf get back to his old form.  Given the situation, I believe all the pieces are in place for these guys to succeed.

NHL and Advanced Statistics ( Corsi-Number)

The NHL has developed in many ways over the past ten or so seasons.  We have seen rule changes, lockout seasons, and even several unfortunate events which resulted in the loss of some great individuals.  However, one thing that has not changed is the importance of numbers and statistics.

We have come so far from the days where the only stat that counted was a teams' record.  In modern day hockey, we have seen an incredible revolution in hockey statistics.  The value and application of these stats have proven crucial to the game.  When it comes down to it, even hockey is a game of averages and percentages.  If utilized correctly, a team can theoretically maximize their chances of winning.  Of course these systems are far from perfect, but they have proven to be crucial in analyzing an individual's value.  For example; baseball is undoubtedly a game of numbers. Going late into the game, a manager will occasionally change out a pitcher for just one batter.  Sometimes you will hear people questioning the move, and wondering why he would make that change.  The answer is simple, that batter is statistically less likely to get a hit off certain pitchers.  I did some research to prove this point and I found that Ted Williams hit only 12% of his home runs off of left handed pitchers.  Babe Ruth hit only 30%, and Duke Snider hit a measly 8%.  When given those numbers, it seems stupid to NOT make that change.

The same exact thing happens in hockey, except slightly less focus is placed on match ups.  Do not get me wrong, match-ups are key.  However, most of these modern hockey statistics are used to identify hidden information which can help to understand why a team is performing a certain way. I guess it would make sense to use the most talked about modern statistic, the Corsi-Number.

Essentially, each individual player receives a score based on their even-strength play.  This score is very similar to a plus / minus rating, except the score itself is determined by how many shots are directed at the net while that player is on the ice.  This includes shots on net, missed shots, and blocked shots.  Any shot that is directed at one's own net is a minus, and any shots directed at the opponent is of course, a plus.  If you are still somewhat new to the stat, various websites will provide some great info for you.

What stats like this do is break down the game into a very organized set of numbers.  Each and every player earns these statistics, and it helps coaches as well as General Managers make important decisions.  On a very basic level, it is obvious that teams who get more shots win more games.  It is a very basic law of averages, but it can be over-looked.  What the Corsi number does is analyse the score of each individual on the team.  All a coach has to do is take that number, and locate which guys are struggling the most.  Most good coaches will make some slight adjustments to get the team average up.  All of a sudden, each line is maximizing shots for and drastically reducing shots against ( in theory ).

I was scanning through some of the Corsi stats online and it can be a real pain to find.  However, the hockeyanalysis.com website does have a variety of different versions of the classic Corsi-number.  From what I have seen, certain teams have a lot of individuals making the list compared to others.  For example, the LA Kings slaughtered the competition with regards to Corsi and other related statistics.  Over the past two seasons, the Kings have ten players who made the top 100 list for Corsi ratings.  This includes depth players like Jake Muzzin, Dwight King, and Roby Regehr.  I almost expected Kopitar, Doughty and other top tier players to make the cut, but seeing a lot of depth guys is quite surprising.  None of these individuals are known for shooting the puck.  In fact, many of them are role players who focus primarily on making the smart play and limiting time in the defensive zone.  Nonetheless, these stats are vitally important for the Kings coaching staff as they plan to maintain the same level of success moving forward.  


 

Salary Cap Strategies of the NHL : Colorado Avalanche

I have been doing a lot of research on Western Conference teams lately.  Simply because teams like Minnesota and Colorado have become very talented in such a short time.  Today, I want to assess the Avalanche roster as they have certain salary cap traits which have not been attempted since the Red Wings in the early 2000's.

Essentially, the entire concept is to take your best player and sign him to a long term deal.  When doing so, the GM makes that particular amount of money the most any individual can make on the team.  When the Red Wings did it back in the early 2000s, they had phenomenal success as all the players took moderate pay cuts in an effort to strengthen the team.  In turn, they had a dominant lineup for years, and had ample amounts of money to spend on their depth players.  

Currently, the Avalanche have Matt Duchene signed until the end of the 2019-20 season at six million dollars annually.  I know it seems like a lot of money for a twenty three year old kid.  However, he already has an Olympic gold, a World Junior Gold, and produces roughly a point per game.  Consider the fact that Patrick Kane and Johnathan Toews are now making over 10 million dollars a season in Chicago.  These are two players who have been in the league a few years more than Duchene, but followed a nearly identical path and put up very similar offensive numbers.  By the end of this season, Duchene could theoretically be worth 8 or 9 million dollars.

With that considered, it makes it very difficult for any other player on the Avalanche to demand anything more than six million dollars.  Imagine in a few years, when Nathan Mackinnon is entering his prime.  If things go as planned, the Avalanche will have Duchene, Mackinnon and Landeskog signed long term for just under 18 million dollars a season.  In free agency, most of these guys would pull in contracts from other teams worth 7-8 million dollars.  This is where I find the only flaw in the system.  It is my strong belief that Mackinnon will be a better player than Duchene will ever be, and that is not to take anything away from Duchene.  It is only a matter of time, but I believe that two years from now, we may see the Avalanche struggle to sign Mackinnon for 6 million as his value is going to be through the roof.  Nonetheless, it is a bold strategy and it has paid off thus far.  Signing Mackinnon will be crucial to the long term success of the team.  If they pull it off, expect the Avalanche to be dominant once again.      

Back in the mid 2000s, the Red Wings perfected this strategy.  A shocking number of long term Red Wings bought into the team concept and pulled off two Stanley Cup Wins in both 2002 and 2008.  Some key players during this time were guys like Brendan Shannahan, Steve Yzerman, Pavel Datsyuk, Thoman Holmstrom and Henrik Zetterberg.  All of these players have been with the team basically their entire career, and it proves that the strategy has legitimacy.  Despite the legendary status of many of these players, we sometimes forget that Nicklas Lidstrom was the invisible guideline which set the standard for Red Wing contracts.  

I guess now we are left with the question; Can it work for the Avalanche in the modern day NHL?

Thoughts... 

NHL Expansion Rumors

If any of you are NHL fans, you probably heard the various rumors swirling around regarding some potential expansions teams sprouting up.  Frankly, I am somewhat surprised by these ridiculous speculations.  How can commissioner Gary Bettman even consider adding teams to the league when so many are failing.  I think that many hockey fans would be shocked by the financial failures of many "successful teams."  I have no idea how this ever got so bad, but if I was Gary Bettman; I would start by addressing the financial disaster which is the Arizona Coyotes and other teams of that nature.  

If it was not for Rogers basically buying the entire league's broadcasting rights', teams like Arizona would be out of luck.  Rogers essentially controls everything now, and is obviously going to limit what CBC and TSN are able to do.  Essentially, the contract will put more focus on teams in the United States than ever before.  Games will be more readily available, and hopefully it can generate a larger fan base for teams playing in non-traditional hockey markets.  Don't get me wrong, the contract is enormous for the league.  However, it just seems like another piece to the puzzle for Gary Bettman.  Intentional or not, the guy works solely for himself and the United States.  He is completely close-minded to any ideas that would involve the relocation of an American team, regardless of how much money the league pays to keep it afloat.  

It is beyond me how Arizona has lasted this long as an NHL franchise.  They honestly have no fans!  Players do not want to play there because the city could not care less about the league, or even the sport.  I can guarantee you that over half of the state cannot name a single player on that team.  The entire well being of that franchise is botched, yet Bettman still insists that they cost the league 30 million a season.  Of course, that is no big deal as Bettman can simply use the revenue generated by the Maple Leafs to cover that loss.  

Now, there's even talk that the league will consider slapping down a new franchise literally right beside the Maple Leafs.  If Bettman opened his eyes, he would see that nearly 99% of all Ontario citizens do not want another team in Ontario.  We already support two teams, and Bettman should have a little bit of respect in this matter.  I am completely open for trying out a team in Seattle or possibly Quebec City.  However, I do not approve of expanding the league by four teams, as projected!  Why does Bettman not simply take Arizona and haul them up North to a real hockey market and see if the team can succeed.  I can guarantee you that the team will instantly improve financially in a Northern location, whether it be Canada or the U.S.

NHL: Canucks Push Back

For the first time since the 2007-08 season, the Vancouver Canucks failed to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  I am a firm believer that this season will be an enormous building block for the team.  Long time Canuck, Trevor Linden rejoined the team recently, not as a player, but as President of Hockey Operations.  From the get go, Linden has made it clear that he wants to completely restructure the definition of Canuck hockey.  Changes came immediately, as the organization relieved both John Tortorella and Mike Gillis from their duties as Head Coach and GM respectively.

At first, many Canuck fans including myself were tentative in buying into these changes.  Benning is a relatively quiet guy, and most fans knew little about him.  I was personally shocked to find out that he had actually played with Linden many years back on the Canucks.  Benning was never a standout NHL player, but he seems to be handling his new role as GM quite well.  Since the start, he has worked with Linden to strengthen the Canucks roster.  He made two vital moves early on; signing Radim Vrabata and trading Ryan Kesler to the Anaheim Ducks.  For the first time in years, the Sedin twins will have a top line scorer to play with.  Getting rid of Kesler was another important move as his agent made it clear that they were pursuing a change.  With media attention already swirling around the team, avoiding further controversy with their players was an easy decision.

Given the previous season, the Canucks decided that it was important to get a legitimate number one goaltender who can act as a guide for young standout, Eddie Lack.  The signing of Ryan Miller should prove to solidify the goalie position.  There is no question about goaltending now, as both Miller and Lack are comfortable with the roles they have been assigned.  Keeping Lack appears to be part of Benning's plan to sustain that internal competition at every position.  Benning clearly intends on building a team internally through smart drafting and development of young players.

For the first time in several years, the Canucks came out of the draft looking great.  Out of every single team this year, the Canucks may have had the best draft based on their position.  First round pick, Jake Virtanen is a clear indication of where the team wants to go.  He is a powerful skater who goes through defenders.  He is dangerous from everywhere on the ice, and brings an edge that the Canucks roster has not seen in years.  Expect new Canucks coach; Willie Desjardins to buy into Benning's ideas. They will be pushing youth into the system in an effort to create internal competition.  The Canucks do not have the luxury of a deep pool of young stars, but they do have numerous players who are closing in on cracking the roster.

I am personally a little concerned with the youth talent.  All of our strong young guys are still in the midst of development, and Benning has made it clear that they will not be playing on the NHL team unless they are physically and mentally prepared.  Top prospects Bo Horvat, Hunter Shinkaruk, and Jake Virtanen are still very young and are a long shot this year.  Our only young guys who have a good shot at making the team are individuals who have had a shot before, but have not succeeded.  Jordan Scroeder was one of those guys that Canucks fans were expecting to put up big numbers for us.  However, he is already 23 and is still struggling to find that extra gear he needs to succeed at a top level.  I expect Scroeder, Brendan Gaunce and Frank Corrado to bounce around between the AHL and the NHL depending on injuries and other variables.


If you are a Canucks fun, do not expect these off-season pickups to completely turn the team around.  We should make a decent push at one of the later playoff positions, but it will be a struggle.  The Canucks have to jump four full spots in the west this season if they want any chance of making the post-season.  Teams like Dallas, Winnipeg, Phoenix and Minesota are looking to make a push for that final spot as well.  It is not impossible, but the Canucks are going to have to bounce back immediately and start strong early on this season.

Anaheim Ducks - Moving into the 2014-15 season

The Anaheim Ducks are coming off one of the best seasons in team history with regards to regular season wins. They finished second in the league behind only Boston, who edged them out by one point. They ended up winning their first round matchup vs Dallas (4-2), but were eventually defeated in round two by the Stanley Cup Champion Los Angeles Kings. 

The key to the Ducks success is the incredible consistency throughout the lineup. At first glance, people just see the massive point totals coming from the Ducks’ Superstars – Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry. What most people do not notice is the ridiculously high +/- stats contributed by nearly every player in the lineup. 

Some key role players for Anaheim have put up mediocre numbers with regards to point production, but have done exceptionally well at keeping the puck out of their own net. For example, Dustin Penner put up a decent 32 points, but maintained a +22 during the season. Hampus Lindholm put up 30 points, and nearly matched that total in +/- with a +29. This is maintained throughout the lineup, and is proving to be the new model for modern day NHL teams who want to be successful.

Advanced sport statisticiansknow that production needs to be consistent throughout the lineup if one wants to maintain a successful team. If we look a little closer, we can see evidence of this on every one of the successful NHL teams in today’s league. 

The value of two way forwards, and consistent defensemen has skyrocketed as GMs around the league need to fight for solid role players. Players like David Bolland are benefiting significantly from this new system. He can win face-offs, hit, kill penalties and chip in offensively. He will not score 40 goals a season, maybe not even 20. However, he signed a 5 year, 27 million dollar deal because he has such a strong all-around game. 

This style of team building is not easy, however. Progressing into 2014-15, we see the Ducks making some bold moves to solidify themselves in the West. I believe the series loss against Los Angeles last year was the reason Bob Murray made the moves he did. 

In an effort to add some more firepower to his lineup, the Ducks traded for Ryan Kesler from the Vancouver Canucks. When healthy, Kesler can easily put up 20-30 goals a season. The one enormous downfall to this deal is the fact that Kesler is an inconsistent and streaky scorer who has had injury trouble in the past. If Kesler stays healthy, he will likely be top 3 on the team in nearly every offensive category. 

On the other hand, Kesler brings in 5 million dollars against the salary cap, and the Ducks were forced to trade away Luca Sbisa as well as as Nick Bonino. 

Bonino is getting paid just under 2 million dollars a season for the next three years. Given his production last year, he may be the best bargain player in the league. He potted 22 goals and 27 assists last year in Anaheim, putting him third on the team in point production. It is hard to say who won the trade, and only time will tell. 

I believe that Bob Murray and his Ducks will be one of the dominant NHL teams in the West for some time. Don’t expect them to take the number one spot in the west again, however. 

Teams like Los Angeles and Chicago will likely overtake the Ducks, as they are once agin lack experience in goal. Anderson is too young and inexperienced to be the number one goalie in a seriously talented Western Conference. By the looks of it, he will be expected to start the majority of the games this year. This can be a tall task and an important test for the young goaltender moving forward. 

It will be a struggle, but look for Anaheim to finish anywhere from 2-4 in the West. As of now I have them in the 3 spot behind Los Angeles and Chicago.

Sports Networker
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